Intraday Briefing 6/12/20 (Volatility)

Updated Market Snapshot


Stocks-Dow Jones, SPX, Nasdaq We expect the March 23, 2020, low to hold going forward. Our outlook is for weakness (another large drop is on the table) into June 15th with a choppy rally back up to or near post-crash highs into June 30th. The last 5 days of June appear highly bullish for equities. Expect large institutional buying then. Weakness from early July into July 13-17th is currently forecasted. This is the next danger period in stocks. Dow 23500 is a possibility into mid-July.  Updated 6/12 Metals-Gold, Silver A quick spike into June 17th, +- 1 day, is expected for Gold followed by weakness into the end of June. Our bearish scenario expects Gold to stay contained in our consolidation box $1670-1810 until September. Our bullish scenario would have Gold Spiking to $1920 in early July 6th-9th then retreating over the summer months, while staying in our consolidation box, into September 1st. After this spike a sharp drop is likely.  Expect the largest rally of the year in metals September and October. $2200-2400 by October 2020. We expect the miners to track Gold and be a bit weaker. Near term, Silver is currently projected to be weaker than Gold and should be headed for a sharp drop into the end of June, $15.50 futures is possible.  A generational buy will develop soon for silver as July looks bullish for the metal. Updated 6/12 Energy-Oil, Natural Gas Support for Oil is $34.50 with resistance $44. We expect it to be range-bound into early summer. We expect a very strong rally for natural gas, based on our artificial intelligence target, into mid-July. A production cut may occur soon as natural gas producing countries try to buoy natural gas prices. As the economies of the world reopen, the limited supply will be consumed and with many oil and gas rigs still shuttered a supply shortage will develop into summer. Updated 6/12 Currencies-USD, Euro The manipulation in the currency markets is at an all-time high. They are currently the playground for central banks. Central banks around the globe are attempting to push the dollar lower in order to make debt obligations easier and avoid defaults for many countries. Much of the debt abroad is in dollars. The key level on the dollar is $95.50. A break of this level should usher in a multi-week sell-off into the $88 level. The Euro is targeting a cycle high on June 29th. Two major cycle lows in the dollar are expected in October 2020 and May 2021. We are choosing to stay out of the currency markets for the time being. The dollar is still king regardless of the money printing. Updated 6/12 ​ Bonds/Notes-US Treasuries Will remain in a period of congestion with a break out higher sometime mid-June, culminating with a spike top late June/early July. We expect the Fed to have their hands full trying to contain interest rates. They will ultimately rise as the FED has no choice and is boxed in. Fixed bond prices are forecasted to drop into 2021. They will be avoided and possibly shorted by HFZ. Updated 6/12 ​ Bitcoin-GBTC We are waiting patiently for our $8200 target to be struck. This low should provide a tremendous buying opportunity for a  trending trade over the third quarter. A breakout above $10,500, key level, before a spike low will make us re-examine our forecast. Updated 6/12




HFZ



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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 

 

Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 

 

The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  

 

No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein.  The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions.  HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you. 

 

By your use of the Site and Services, you're agreeing that you bear responsibility for your own investment research, trades, and investment decisions. Only you can decide whether or not a trade is right for you and you agree to be liable for any trades you initiate at your brokerage using research and/or tools that we provide. If you ignore our advice to do independent research and choose instead to trade solely on information, analysis, alerts or opinions found in our Service or website, you have made a conscious, willing, free, and personal decision to do so. You also agree that HFZ, its directors, its employees, subsidiaries, affiliates, and its agents will not be liable for any investment decision, trade made or action taken by you and others based on news, information, opinion, or any other material published through our Site and Services.  

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