Nightly Briefing 10/13/20


Expect a stimulus deal to come to fruition as both parties need it. Speaker Pelosi is playing hardball with the Senate and White House, but this game of poker should end no later than early next week. It will most likely be a sell-the-news event for a few days. After early next week, expect whipsaw action with a sideways bias into November 4th, frustrating bulls and bears alike.


The short squeeze should settle down and other indexes should keep pace or outperform the NDX over the next 5 trading days.


No stimulus deal gave the dollar a boost and hurt risk assets - in particular, metals. Metals had gapped up significantly from Thursday's close and backfilled today clearing the way for higher prices into the next 5 trading days. Like stocks, we expect a choppy sideways to slightly downward bias in metals into the election. The real action should occur post Election Day. We will give multiple strategies to hold, sell, or hedge current metals options trades next week.


Gold leads so know these price levels: over $1985 on a closing basis and a retest of 2020 highs will be seen; a close below $1870 and a retest of the September lows will be seen before a sharp reversal.


Expect a dollar low, $92-$92.50, on the stimulus news announcement then a choppy upward bias into Election Day.


Natural gas will have 3 great days over the next 2 weeks which will give us 80% of the gains. We will watch time and price for a short term top. Goldman put out a strong private note to clients over the weekend to stay long natural gas.


A large upwards surprise is in store for DENN come earnings.



Our next leg higher in SPCE most likely began today with the retest of support and sharp reversal, closing on the highs of the day. We should see $25+ quickly. We will provide hedging strategies into the launch date, Oct 22nd. We will soon provide a breakdown of sectors to watch in relation to the outcome of the Presidential Election. Many asset classes like stocks and metals will not have short term trends changed by the winner, but there are a few which could have a strong change in trend. We will cover them this weekend. HFZ



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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 

 

Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 

 

The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  

 

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