Nightly Briefing 10/18/20


A week prior to the election may produce some de-risking followed by a relief rally 3-5 days post election. After the election, the market will likely experience whipsaw up-and-down moves of 800-1000 points into early December. Volatility should subside after December 7-10 and produce a strong year-end rally: SPX 3800 is possible. Stocks are headed higher into Q1 regardless of who the President is. Long term positions into this top are favored in NDX, SOXX and XBI.


Small and mid-caps should rally further than major indexes into the election.


At this point, we are not expecting a bloodbath phase in metals. A sharp, initial drop trapped longs who bought in late July while early August saw a long consolidation period. This is one of the most common bottoming patterns in metals. Metals should have a choppy advance into early December. Do not expect to see an advance like this past summer until January through March, where we anticipate a sustained advance into a 4-year cycle. Targets are gold $2500, silver $40+. Year-end December targets are $2100 gold and $30 silver.



Assuming we get our test launch in Virgin this week, $27 should be tested and possibly $30 followed by a correction to shake longs out before $40 into year end.


DENN needs to break this downtrend line to ignite the rally.


Natural gas will be heavily used this winter. Much higher prices into December are expected.


Q1 2021 should see Bitcoin break over $20,000.



The second half of 2021 looks terrible for Hong Kong and we expect a crash event into Q4 2021 .


Europe will limp higher into early January with other global indexes.


Canada is in better shape than Europe and will feed off the US economic rebound.


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