After today's intervention, it seems we have most likely printed a daily cycle low late in September. Our ICL will most likely start late October after highs are potentially re-tested in major indexes into October 21-25.
We must wait until Wednesday at the close to see if further weakness occurs. There is plenty of upside left - no need to panic buy. We always prefer to make less than to lose.
We still expect a possible backtest of support tomorrow through early Thursday, so do not get complacent. We are not out of the woods just yet. Futures were ramped up last night at 6pm as overnight trading began on news that President Trump was recovering and being released late Monday from the hospital. Our natural cycles should have had price drop from last Thursday into Wednesday. We will not go long TQQQ until most likely Thursday. Yes, we may miss some of the rally if the Fed triggers algo buying. But we care about risk first. There remains risk of a backtest of support into Thursday. We currently have Thursday afternoon into Tuesday of next week as highly bullish for stocks. We will wait to go long unless SPX can give a close over 3430 tomorrow or Wednesday. If you have anxiety and fear of missing out you can buy a pilot position at anytime, but be prepared for possible drawdown temporarily into Wednesday/Thursday. Something to note - every single piece of PR from this administration takes into account the stock market, so always expect bad news after the markets have closed not while they are trading.
The stock market was up big today, but so is the VIX. It is possible someone knows something or big money sees a short-term spike in fear over the coming days. These counter-trend VIX moves in the past have been a “tell” for quick sharp unexpected pullbacks in stocks which would confirm our forecast for weakness into Wednesday on a closing basis. Caveat emptor until Thursday.
Target for end of October.
We like the semiconductors into the election. We may purchase SOXL instead of TQQQ. They will move together.
We triggered 4 hour buy signals today on short-term charts. If you are trading options in UNG, not advised, make sure you plenty of time into year end.
Gold is going to grind lower. We don’t see any large $70-$100 drops coming. Spikes down will be met with dip buyers into month end. We are expecting a top Tuesday/Wednesday. The Fed minutes Wednesday at 2pm may be a trigger for a drop into the end of the week. We don’t like shorting anything in these markets with all the liquidity running through the system. The Fed will help keep the dollar suppressed, but it should still rally into the election in order to inflate stocks. The dollar rebound will thus be tedious and slow.
We don’t like any altcoins as governments around the world tighten restrictions on crypto, attempting to usher in their own digital currencies. Expect Europe to lead the charge first. Several major altcoin trading platforms have been charged by the Department of Justice. This is how government fights for survival. Stick to major crypto names like BTC, XRP, LTC and ETH. Before this currency crisis ends, expect Europe and China to restrict gold purchases and attack secondary crypto coin trading platforms for private citizens. Silver and big name crypto’s will see incredible capital movement in the years ahead. This won't end until 2024-2025. We expect the price of Bitcoin to by then be well over $100,000.
SPCE should follow the NDX higher into mid-October and possibly sell off after their scheduled test flights October 22nd. Another scenario is price suppression and containment into October 22nd and then the liftoff. We are opting for a sell-the-news event into the test flights, especially if the markets remain strong. The market makers control this one and if they so choose they have unlimited firepower to moderate the short term. With all of the positive press coming out about the growing space industry, we feel it will be challenging and costly to suppress SPCE. Expect more upgrades into their launch date. HFZ
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