Nightly Briefing 6/15/20


There is a correction in progress in the stock market. Our forecast for weakness into today proved to be accurate. We are favoring a bounce tomorrow with more possible weakness into the end of the week. If tomorrow’s rally can clear certain levels, though unlikely, we would consider a more short term bullish picture.  The depth and length of this consolidation period remains in question. We are tracking two different scenarios as outlined in last night's briefing. We will have our answers in the coming days. Our posture will remain defensive.  The Federal Reserve is relentless with its liquidity. Today, they gave the green light on individual corporate bond buying. Prior to today it was only bond ETF’s. Shorting the market is not wise at this time. Expect very few trends and violent whipsaw for markets in general: a true short term traders delight. We will be trading these coming swings and will extract profits from the market during this environment while we wait for our upcoming longer trending trades to develop.

Small trader call buying is at an extreme. A very reliable indicator of a large drop in the near future.

Our favored path for gold is a quick spike into June 18th-22nd and then a possible collapse into early July. If you are not long, it's not wise to try to squeeze the last bit of juice from the lemon. If you are long, this is an opportunity to lighten or liquidate positions into this coming spike.

Our computers update data in the evening. By Tuesday, we will have a higher probability outlook for the markets. Tomorrow, we may take profits in one or both restaurant stock positions. Long term investors can ride out any correction in BLMN/ DENN  and hold for higher prices into summer. Both are extremely undervalued. Several earnings upgrades were issued today in addition to new long institutional positions. These are stocks with 90%+ institutional ownership. On red days the big smart money adds names like these.

Natural gas has been a tedious position for us. We await a confirmation day with big volume in levered ETF’s to signal our spike low has been set and our sharp upward reversal is in progress. Today may have been it. Natural gas does well when the stock market struggles in addition to it entering the most bullish period of the year.


Bottom line: extreme bullish sentiment is resetting in stocks, metals, energy and volatility (a normal event) which will give us a strong bottom and trigger many great trades in the coming days. The bull market is not dead and the world is not ending. We see Dow 40,000+ in the next 2 years led by AI, robotics, semi-conductors, nano technology, biotech and other human sciences. And the biggest metals bull market in 40 years has just begun.


HFZ

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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 

 

Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 

 

The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  

 

No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein.  The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions.  HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you. 

 

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