We forecasted whipsaw in the stock market for the next few weeks and that is exactly what we have gotten. It does not look like it will stop until the second week of July, possibly on the 6th, when a bull trending move is expected to develop. We expect volatility to continue into that date with downside 23,500 Dow. Periods like this happen in the stock market and sometimes the best position is cash. Most of you have probably noticed successful investing involves a lot of waiting for the right setup. Those that try to force trades everyday during periods like this usually end up losing money. March, April, and May were easy trading months with June being more tricky. Be patient, we see several longer bull trends from July through October.
We anticipate weakness into futures expiration this Friday for silver and mining stocks followed by a bounce into early next week with the opposite for gold. Our July forecast is taking form now and we will have a clear picture of the metal complex’s next big move next month. As of now our models are projecting possible weakness the first days of July, 6/7th, followed by an upward price explosion into the first few days of August, shown below.
We anticipate a low on non farm payrolls July 3/4 with a slightly higher low into July 14th before a sizable rally occurs into early August. Remember - metals like to double bottom. They don’t normally rocket out of an initial low like stocks.
Members have asked why we did not sell when BLMN reached $14-15 days ago, purchased at $10.95. No one has a 100% crystal ball that can see every turn in the market. They simply do not exist. Our system sees a lot but not everything. We feel a big name value investor will soon a come out with a “buy restaurant stocks” recommendation and we would wake up to our stock surging $3-4. Very few would want to chase price at that point. The facts are these diamonds are trading at such a discount to the market that we feel it's not if but when our move occurs. Our confidence level and risk/reward rating is very high in BLMN and DENN. They can possibly explode higher into July 4th weekend as the 1st of every month institutional capital is deployed into the markets.
The float of SPCE is approximately 130 million shares with a 26-million short position. It has just 10% current institutional ownership so the hedge funds and banks can move price around in a very aggressive fashion. This is still a name we like going forward and will keep coverage on. People laughed at Tesla years ago when it was in a similar position to Virgin Galactic, burning money with no profits in a limited market due to price. We all know how that story goes.
All opinions, information and illustrations expressed are solely for information and educational purposes and do not constitute investment or trading advice. We bear no responsibility for any actions taken or not taken by third parties after reading the blog. This email content has no regard to your own investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. We may have an interest and may make purchases, sales or short sales in the securities referred to in the financial educational platform blog. Please ask for our consent before re-publishing blog content.
Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed. All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor. All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. Hedge Fund Z LLC is a financial blog for the sole purpose of information. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options. The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system. Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser, bank or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein. The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions. HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you. By your use of the Site and Services, you're agreeing that you bear responsibility for your own investment research, trades, and investment decisions. Only you can decide whether or not a trade is right for you and you agree to be liable for any trades you initiate at your brokerage using research and/or tools that we provide. If you ignore our advice to do independent research and choose instead to trade solely on information, analysis, alerts or opinions found in our Service or website, you have made a conscious, willing, free, and personal decision to do so. You also agree that HFZ, its directors, its employees, subsidiaries, affiliates, and its agents will not be liable for any investment decision, trade made or action taken by you and others based on news, information, opinion, or any other material published through our Site and Services.