Nightly Briefing 7/12/20

The Market Snapshot located in the Gold Portal has been updated as follows:

Stocks (Dow Jones, SPX, Nasdaq) - short term uptrend, long term bull market into 2026

We expect the March 23, 2020, low to hold going forward. We expect a slow, grinding rally into late August for all the indexes with the stronger SPX and NDX extending new recovery highs into September. We are bullish into the early fall but will evaluate our forecast on a month-by-month basis. Stay with NDX, SPX, and DOW. The Transports and Russell may lag. We feel SPX 3050 will hold any decline. Next target up is a retest of SPX 3230 followed by 3400 shortly afterwards. This is not a market to short. The period July 15th-July 29th into the next Federal Reserve meeting currently looks highly bullish. A sell-off of some degree is expected after the next Fed meeting, but may not occur until after August 3rd. Updated 7/13

Metals (Gold, Silver) - Short term uptrend, a break over $2000 is coming during the third quarter 2020. A long term bull market into 2024 - next major cycle high May 2021, then a brief pause before exploding into 2024

We do not see a clear breakout through $1923 currently. A normal correction in metals is coming sometime in the second half of July into early August (5th-11th), not the time for leverage in this sector. Use $1800 gold futures as your stop. We expect gold to stay contained in our consolidation box $1655-$1900 into August. We expect the 2nd largest correction of the year to follow and usher in a higher low in August for the metal complex. After the correction, we expect the largest trending rally of the year in metals with our strongest AI signal of the year into November/December - $2000-2300 is possible. We expect the miners to track gold. Big picture, after a 16-week advance the metals complex is putting in a July top and should consolidate and experience a healthy pullback into August 5th-11th. One last push to $1810-$1830 may come before our correction occurs. In the coming days, Silver should tag $20 before a reversal in the metals complex. It got a weekly close above $19 futures and has turned its yearly trend up. We have peaks for silver in mid-September and mid-December. Updated 7/13

Energy (Oil, Natural Gas) - Short term uptrends, inflationary forces may pull energy higher into 2024

Support for oil is $35 with stiff resistance at $48. A short term top that may hold for 1-2 weeks could occur into July 20th. We expect oil to trade in our range this summer. Natural gas should rally into July 20th with oil. Our next major natural gas cycle top is in November. Updated 7/13

Currencies (Dollar, Euro) - With the increase of global debt we are bearish into 2024

The manipulation in the currency markets is at an all-time high. They are currently the playground for central banks. Central banks around the globe are attempting to push the dollar lower in order to make debt obligations easier and avoid defaults for many countries. Much of the debt abroad is in dollars. The key level on the dollar is $95.50. If broken, a decline into the $88 level would be expected. The dollar has entered an overall bear market. Two major cycle lows in the dollar are expected in October 2020 and May 2021. We are choosing to stay out of the currency markets for the time being. The dollar is still king regardless of the money printing. Updated 7/13

Bonds/Notes (US Treasuries) - Bear market into 2024, debt crisis will lead bonds lower into 2024

A spike top late is expected for early July. We expect bonds to gradually roll over and start a slow decline into 2024. We expect the Fed to have their hands full trying to contain interest rates buying both corporate and government bonds. Rates will ultimately rise as central banks lose control. Fixed bond prices are forecasted to drop into 2021. They will be avoided and possibly shorted by HFZ. Updated 7/13

Bitcoin (BTC/GBTC) - Short term range-bound, bull market into 2026, next major cycle top November/December 2020

We are waiting patiently for our min. entry target of $8200 to be struck. BTC is currently in no man's land as long as it trades between $8800-$10200. The next low should provide a tremendous buying opportunity for a trending trade over the third quarter. A breakout above $10,300 before our anticipated spike low will make us re-examine our forecast. We are watching for a a 2-4 day blood bath event that will trigger our low and provide us with a good entry. Updated 7/13

Higher prices are likely into the month-end Fed meeting in major indexes, July 29th-August 3rd. We prefer a 50/50 mix of SPX and NDX for safety for anybody trading ETF's on the major indexes.

Our system is showing a short term top in energy July 20th +/- 1 trading day.

Gold likely has one more spike up coming in the next 3-4 trading days. We are watching July 16th as a turn date in the metals complex to usher in a healthy correction into early August which will present a good buying opportunity. We will be buying that dip in miners and silver.

Sentiment in the gold sector has cooled off a bit and may have one more attempt at a rally before rolling over. Don't sweat gold bugs. Corrections are natural profit-taking events and are necessary to keep a long term chart healthy. We are highly bullish on metals into the fall.

Miners tend to roll over first and telegraph a top. Dust will trade between 21-23 until the correction occurs, We are positioned to capture profits from this meaningful counter-trend move.

We believe this week is recognition week for restaurants. They have been pushed around by short-selling hedge funds. Most stocks topped in early June with very few stocks performing well the past month other than the big tech names. BLMN and DENN have been bullied to the downside and we expect a violent reaction in the opposite direction as good data emerges and shorts scramble to cover into month end.

We need a close over $20 to set the large rally in motion for SPCE. It will most likely need a couple days to consolidate gains but very soon we expect a break over $20 and into the $30 range. Many of our members are holding space and in profit, but we honored our stop loss and fell victim to the whipsaw action. We may re-enter shortly. We love this name long term.

CLF may stall for a day or two near its 200 DMA at $6.18. The entire steel and iron ore sector exploded upward Friday so something big on a macro level may be in play here. CLF both sells steel and produces the iron ore which it sells to other steel makers. When this sector catches fire, CLF is a name to watch.


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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 


Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 


The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  


No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein.  The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions.  HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you. 


By your use of the Site and Services, you're agreeing that you bear responsibility for your own investment research, trades, and investment decisions. Only you can decide whether or not a trade is right for you and you agree to be liable for any trades you initiate at your brokerage using research and/or tools that we provide. If you ignore our advice to do independent research and choose instead to trade solely on information, analysis, alerts or opinions found in our Service or website, you have made a conscious, willing, free, and personal decision to do so. You also agree that HFZ, its directors, its employees, subsidiaries, affiliates, and its agents will not be liable for any investment decision, trade made or action taken by you and others based on news, information, opinion, or any other material published through our Site and Services.  

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