Nightly Briefing 7/2/20

Sentiment has reset now and we expect the stock market to resume its upward trend into late August/early September. The Nasdaq and S&P will lead. Folks, equities are going alot higher. We have seen this bedtime story before. Do not let main stream headlines seperate you from your money with panic selling which will potentially generate unnecessary losses. The FED is expanding its balance sheet again. When days we have marked for weakness bring nothing but endless dip buying and supported prices; we know the FED is busy. Many investors are about to miss this rally into summer 2020.

Near term, a double top may form in SPX at 3223 next week. We expect this level to be broken prior to the Federal Reserve meeting July 28-29th. We forecast a rally into the Republican and Democratic Conventions is our forecast, with possible extension into early September. The market will climb the wall of worry and negative headlines. Don’t fight the Federal Reserve. The Main Street economy is poor and if the Fed stops injecting liquidity, a collapse of the global central bank system could occur. Do not expect this to happen. The stakes are high and the central banks of the world know it. Expect them to throw the kitchen sink at the markets over the summer. Many who sold will be sick to their stomach come August.

The secondary offering led by Wells Fargo put a floor under our stock at $9. General weakness in restaurant stocks due to NYC and California shutting down restaurants an additional week or two led to sector-wide weakness this week. This will end as the month moves forward and we will have a few explosive days of upside as the sector plays catch up. Mainstream news is trying its best to promote sensationalist fear but the facts remain that virtually no one is dying and people want their daily routines and lives back.

Earnings are scheduled for late July/early August. We expect a rally into that date. The two new board members specialize in franchising and private equity restaurant sales. We expect BLMN to franchise many of its company owned-and-operated eateries - possibly the entire new Aussie Grill chain. Each location would bring in an estimated $2-3 million. If Outbacks are franchised the numbers get even more interesting at upwards of $4 million per site. In our opinion,  anyone who sold or sells at these basement prices will feel betrayed by the press in a few weeks when things are looking better and the panic they created - causing many average investors to jettison stocks while insiders accumulate - ultimately subsides.

We expect selling into the second half of July and into August. Max upside in gold is $1830 futures. We hit close to $1805. We expect a pullback next week and possibly one more try for gold to poke its head above the $1800 level before a correction occurs.

With the stock market acting stronger than we anticipated, we now expect crude oil to break through its $44 resistance and possibly touch $47 December futures by next week. Mid-tier bankruptcies in the energy field will help shrink supply to fuel upside price action near term.


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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 


Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 


The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  


No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein.  The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions.  HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you. 


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