Nightly Briefing 7/26/20


We had a July 17th turning point for metals. It extended 5 days past our top date. Picking a bottom is easier than a top for us. A spike early Monday for metals is possible with reversal into week's end, especially for silver. If you have at least a December outlook on time you can continue to hold and not worry in our opinion. After an initial sell-off into early August, a convincing bounce will occur, maybe even close to a double top which can be traded. Late September into December, as of today, looks like our next large bull period. We may attempt another entry in DUST early this week. This does not mean we are bearish on the metals. Once a healthy tree shake is complete we will enter long positions again.


This type of activity is indicative of tops in metals.

Bullion banks are short huge amounts of metals contracts. The metals can rise under these conditions like they have in past rallies, like last summer and over the winter, but ultimately there is an exit for the banks as they cover violent sell-offs as the cycle bottoms. They are hedged long with options and short contracts so they can never get knocked out of the game. Bottom line, with COT numbers like this, we certainly expect a sharp multi-day beat down for the metals complex as day traders are fleeced. Barring some event like a banking crisis or nuclear war, the metals will get attacked by shorts. Why these banks continually short the metals is a topic for a different day and report. Let’s just say the powers that be do not like the optics of the metals sky rocketing in price as it gives the appearance the US financial system is falling apart. At extreme times they will not be able to stop price. Those exciting days are coming over the next 2-4 years. These will be exceptional times for HFZ and our members where generational profits are made.


We heard about a crash and double bottom in May, June, and now July from CNBC and many market analysts. We have never wavered with our V-shaped recovery forecast. Many members with us since the Covid crash have bought and held positions through all of this rhetoric and profited. Please do not hold your breath for a crash anytime soon. Any sell-off will be bought. We would expect SPX 3060 to currently hold into early August and be met with higher prices into the end of August and most likely early September.

The market was down on Friday yet BLMN performed quite nicely. During June, when the market was rebounding there were many days BLMN stayed flat or negative. Look for more signs of strength like this from BLMN in the week ahead. We saw heavy volume and large block buying on Friday, a good sign. We expect higher prices this week. The 200 DMA is our next target at $15+.


Denny’s reports earnings on Tuesday and we expect strength from them as well.


Our expectation is for crude to slowly grind higher to the $48-49 level, stiff resistance. USO will follow crude.


Possible accumulation target for SPCE.


Bitcoin has traded in a narrow range for the past 60 days, very hard to make money. We need a break-down sub $8300 to buy - or a sustained break out above $10,000 to chase. 



HFZ


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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 

 

Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 

 

The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  

 

No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein.  The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions.  HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you. 

 

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