We start with the US dollar tonight. It has fallen into a downtrend as we forecasted. Expect a bounce into early August starting as soon as tomorrow. This will put pressure on metals and may help the stock market pullback next week after the Fed meeting. We expect stocks to be supported into August 3rd, intraday. This may change as the week unfolds but that is our current expectation. The size of the pullback may be very small. Don’t expect price to roll over right after the Fed meeting like it did in June. Price should hold up until next week before a brief 3-5 day dip. Higher prices are coming into late August and being a serial trader to avoid a small draw down in positions is challenging. This is not expected to be a major correction (800-1300 Dow points).
Bitcoin has been in a tight trading range and we were expecting to have a quick blood bath phase of 2-4 days to scoop up cheap shares at the $8,200 level. This did not occur and we got our break-out through meaningful resistance over the weekend. As we have alluded to before, BTC likes to break out over weekends. We like to see a close of at least one trading day through resistance. The past 4 months BTC has failed at the $10,300 level countless times only to reverse and stop out traders with losses. We expect the $13,500 to be tested quickly. Short term traders can take profit there with the possibility of a pullback to $10,000 before continuing higher. Breakouts like this are normally back-tested at least one time unless we have a binary event. Mid and long term investors can hold into November for a target of $20,000+ BTC. GBTC provides some leverage for traders but we use BTC price levels to guide us in and out of the trade.
A dollar reversal and extreme sentiment will put pressure on gold price into early August. It can hold up through this week, but next week we still expect a decent drop.
Bloomin received an upgrade from a top tier bank today, JP Morgan Chase with a $16 near term target. Restaurant stocks across the board today suffered algorithmic selling pressure. Unlike past advances that were multi-day events of 3-5 points, expect this one to grind slower and maintain higher prices in the coming weeks. As we inch closer to September and October, you will hear more chatter about vaccines. This will send money flooding into beaten down Covid sectors like restaurants.
Denny’s is extremely beaten down and we expect a sharp move up this week. They report earnings tomorrow.
Oil bounced back from an early morning sell-off and we expect price to continue to grind higher into late August. This is a trade we may stay in until that point in time, unless we see a very sudden large gap up which may cause us to take profits early and buy back later.
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