Nightly Briefing 7/7/20


We warned back on June that this 30-day period would frustrate bulls and bears alike with constant whipsaw action. Aside from a handful of stocks in biotech and tech, most stocks have been range-bound. This is coming to an end the next few days. We expect a broad-based rally to occur pulling up most stocks into August. We have been selective with our trade alerts during this period, only holding deeply undervalued names. Most traders want to always have positions and be making money, but forcing trades during periods like these can quickly result in losses. Everyone wants the market to move on their timing but unfortunately that’s never how markets work. This difficult period is fortunately ending and the bright side is that difficult periods like these are almost always followed by very easy periods. 

We expect a spike top this week followed by a pullback and one last attempt next week at a fina; top. What follows will be potentially a brutal, sharp reversal trapping traders chasing $1900 gold. Anything is possible but without some binary event we do not see $1900 occurring. This is not the time for leveraged positions in the metals complex. If you are long consider a hedge to protect your profits. Gold is very late in its major cycle advance. August should see the metal trade under $1700.

We will look to short GDX through the use of DUST in the coming days.



We have gone through the single longest period of consolidation since the Covid crash in both DENN and BLMN. We are expecting the strongest rally in the coming weeks in both. What will cause it? We don’t exactly know, but we can see as of July 4th, President Trump is now going on the offensive against the media and political agenda that is calling for every business, school, church, and public building to close down into the November elections. We are politically neutral when it comes to our market bias. We invest to make money. 

The at-risk population needs to remain vigilant, but the cold hard data shows a virtual zero death rate for people under 50 with no inflammatory conditions. Every treatment for Covid is dismissed by mainstream news. It is hard to believe there is no treatment for a virus that can be eliminated by washing your hands with soap or using hand sanitizer. Expect the stock market to rally and the propaganda battle to even out going into the Republican and Democratic National Conventions into mid-August.


Crude prices should be supported all summer and see a nice advance over the next few days.

HFZ




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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 

 

Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 

 

The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  

 

No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein.  The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions.  HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you. 

 

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