The SPX hit 3360 today and has followed our blueprint perfectly since March 23rd. We feel 3400 SPX is all but certain with possible extension into labor day weekend to 3600 SPX. The only way to get it all is to hold long term, old turkey. With that comes the draw down of strong corrections. Sell when you are happy with the gains you have made and dont look back. Or hold long term and you won't experience the fear of missing out, FOMO,but you will experience nasty corrections like March with the punidts telling you the worlds ending, not easy to endure. A hybrid approach for those who are long the broad market and nervous about a drop into the coming pre-elections months is to take 80% off the table of your stock gains if your nervous and let 20% ride. Re-Deploy the 80% after the next ICL correction, potentially mid-September into mid-October. We will help you re-enter not necessarily at the bottom, but very close to it. We will be selling certain long positions prior to labor day, early September, but some we will keep.
We are nearing a bull trap prior to a bubble phase commencing in the metals. We feel a major pullback is coming soon. Our models expect one last fleecing by the bullion banks as they are forced to deliver a large amount of physical metal late August and September. A trend shift has occurred at the COMEX, where the metals trade. More and more buyers are demanding the paper futures contracts be satisfied with physical delivery. Delivery is very hard for a retail investor to accomplish, but other COMEX banks have more leverage and can force delivery. The recent rally has left several large banks in a tight spot. We expect at least one last final attempt to create a larger intermediate correction in bullion into late September. We feel certain a smaller attack is a virtual certainty into August 24th. We will have a more concise picture over the next 10 days, If successful potential targets for bullion are $1675-$1800 into late September. There are a confluence of factors influencing the metals markets currently and it requires a lot of risk analysis on our part. As soon as we are sure about an intermediate cycle low in late, September you will know. For now, expect a pullback into August 24th to start. We will not purchase or alert DUST again until we are sure about a major decline into September. It is a very volatile ETF and we can get stopped out quickly as seen in our past trades. It is not a stock so there will be decay and it will eventually go to nothing if the price of miners stayed flat. It is simply a short term trading vehicle. Hence, to open positions in a levered ETF without a stop is not good risk management. Once we are certain about the significant decline, we may alert it. For now, anyone long metals would be showing good judgment by scaling out of some positions or instituting a hedge with puts.
Gold's projected short term path.
We alerted SPCE today. We took a close look at who bought the secondary dilutive offering for SPCE recently at $24-$26, and it was filled with big names that no one would burn. As expected after a dilutive event, many retail shareholders sell. Our last break-out level was $17.50 and it got close to that recently. It is possible to retest $18, but odds favor it regaining $20 and never looking back. Into November, $40-$50 targets are expected from SPCE. We will be holding this name for significant profit potential.
BLMN and DENN both had good days today, with DENN closing over $10 and BLMN closing over $12. This should spur additional upside in the coming days, with a shot at $13 and $15 this week.
US steel is doing what we expected. We have a strong momentum breakout with all signs pointing to the 200 DMA , $9, being tested potentially as early as this week.
We are holding for a September target of $17,000 BTC and $22+ on GBTC. There is a chance we retest $12 first on GBTC. We will hold patiently. For those who do not wish to experience a potential drawdown, you can sell and take profit and re-enter with a clear break over $15.
Crude oil gained modestly on the day with some light profit-taking in natural gas. Both headed higher short term and mid term.
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