Nightly Briefing 8/10/20

The SPX hit 3360 today and has followed our blueprint perfectly since March 23rd. We feel 3400 SPX is all but certain with possible extension into labor day weekend to 3600 SPX. The only way to get it all is to hold long term, old turkey. With that comes the draw down of strong corrections. Sell when you are happy with the gains you have made and dont look back. Or hold long term and you won't experience the fear of missing out, FOMO,but you will experience nasty corrections like March with the punidts telling you the worlds ending, not easy to endure. A hybrid approach for those who are long the broad market and nervous about a drop into the coming pre-elections months is to take 80% off the table of your stock gains if your nervous and let 20% ride. Re-Deploy the 80% after the next ICL correction, potentially mid-September into mid-October. We will help you re-enter not necessarily at the bottom, but very close to it. We will be selling certain long positions prior to labor day, early September, but some we will keep.

We are nearing a bull trap prior to a bubble phase commencing in the metals. We feel a major pullback is coming soon. Our models expect one last fleecing by the bullion banks as they are forced to deliver a large amount of physical metal late August and September. A trend shift has occurred at the COMEX, where the metals trade. More and more buyers are demanding the paper futures contracts be satisfied with physical delivery. Delivery is very hard for a retail investor to accomplish, but other COMEX banks have more leverage and can force delivery. The recent rally has left several large banks in a tight spot. We expect at least one last final attempt to create a larger intermediate correction in bullion into late September. We feel certain a smaller attack is a virtual certainty into August 24th. We will have a more concise picture over the next 10 days, If successful potential targets for bullion are $1675-$1800 into late September. There are a confluence of factors influencing the metals markets currently and it requires a lot of risk analysis on our part. As soon as we are sure about an intermediate cycle low in late, September you will know. For now, expect a pullback into August 24th to start. We will not purchase or alert DUST again until we are sure about a major decline into September.  It is a very volatile ETF and we can get stopped out quickly as seen in our past trades. It is not a stock so there will be decay and it will eventually go to nothing if the price of miners stayed flat. It is simply a short term trading vehicle. Hence, to open positions in a levered ETF without a stop is not good risk management. Once we are certain about the significant decline, we may alert it. For now, anyone long metals would be showing good judgment by scaling out of some positions or instituting a hedge with puts.

Gold's projected short term path.

We alerted SPCE today. We took a close look at who bought the secondary dilutive offering for SPCE recently at $24-$26, and it was filled with big names that no one would burn. As expected after a dilutive event, many retail shareholders sell. Our last break-out level was $17.50 and it got close to that recently. It is possible to retest $18, but odds favor it regaining $20 and never looking back. Into November, $40-$50 targets are expected from SPCE. We will be holding this name for significant profit potential.

BLMN and DENN both had good days today, with DENN closing over $10 and BLMN closing over $12. This should spur additional upside in the coming days, with a shot at $13 and $15 this week.

US steel is doing what we expected. We have a strong momentum breakout with all signs pointing to the 200 DMA , $9, being tested potentially as early as this week.

We are holding for a September target of $17,000 BTC and $22+ on GBTC. There is a chance we retest $12 first on GBTC. We will hold patiently. For those who do not wish to experience a  potential drawdown, you can sell and take profit and re-enter with a clear break over $15.

Crude oil gained modestly on the day with some light profit-taking in natural gas.  Both headed higher short term and mid term.


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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 


Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 


The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  


No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein.  The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions.  HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you. 


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