Nightly Briefing 8/13/20


Predicting day-to-day trading with 100% accuracy is challenging due to the amount of excess noise and data.  Weekly, monthly, and yearly trends for our system are far easier to forecast. Regarding the SPX, we illustrate a short term chart - so don’t panic with the big decline shown above. SPX may hold out and top into August 24th before the expected small pullback of approximately 700 dow points occurs. We expect price to hold up into Labor Day, big picture. We feel the week of August 24th will produce double-sided trading action. A decline followed by a rally or rally followed by decline. By mid next week, we should have a sharper picture of which will come first. Either way, we expect large swings in both directions. Our system is forecasting the last week of August into Sept 4th as a highly bullish period and strong recovery from the dip. After Labor Day, the stock market enters into a more precarious position in our eyes so caution will be warranted.


Sentiment charts, shown above, have cooled off and gone into short term buy territory as of yesterday. This has produced a bounce in the metals complex. We are expecting another sell-off event to start next week and for sentiment to cycle back down again.


Silver has potential to produce a higher high, $30+, into early September after the sell off, but gold and gold miners should be contained by the down trend line and not make new highs. We expect another plunge late next week breaking the Tuesday low of $1870 futures. Possible bottoming targets for late next week are $1800-$1830 futures. The week of August 24th is going to produce a powerful one-week move in metals. We think it will be a rebound from a low. Again, next week we will dial in the forecast with a sharper picture. For now, metals are in a sell-the-bounce mode with an intermediate cycle low projected for early October.



A short term top next week for restaurant stocks looks likely. They may top August 24th with SPX before a pullback that week. Whether they rebound into Sept 4th remains to be seen. We are hopeful for $13 DENN and $15 BLMN. We think taking profits in BLMN $13-15 is prudent and $12.50-14 for DENN.


We feel a close over $20 will produce a multi-point bounce in SPCE short term. We have much higher targets into fall.


We are hopeful the week of August 24th will produce our next leg up in BTC and GBTC.

HFZ


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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 

 

Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 

 

The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  

 

No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein.  The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions.  HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you. 

 

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