As forecasted, the dollar broke the daily cycle downtrend line and should move to test the 94 level. This will put short term pressure on metals. This week we have the Jackson Hole event, where the world’s banking elite gather annually to talk global finance. Fed chairman Jerome Powell will speak on Thursday. We feel this will usher in a short term top for the dollar and reversal. Expect metals to reverse from their bottom on August 26/27 and bounce into September 2/3 before another turn lower.
Expect silver, miners and bullion to bottom for a daily cycle low sometime around August 26/27 this week and usher in a bounce into September 2/3rd. We don’t expect a waterfall sell-off this time, but more of a controlled drop into this Wednesday. Gold targets $1865-$1880 futures, GDX $38.50-$39, silver $23-$24 futures.
We expect markets to advance into mid-week and sell off into the end of the week. Next week should rebound and form a short term double top into Labor Day. After September 7th, there is risk of a moderate sell-off worth paying attention to. Based on the size of this decline, we will be able to gauge what we are looking at into the end of September. Expect volatility to rise after Labor Day into the election. We do not see a crash event, but 1-2 week sell-off's will be present into the election. As of now, September 28th-October 19th is the danger period we are most concerned about. We presently expect a moderate sell-off after Labor Day with a snap back into September 22nd. We have a mid-month Fed meeting so keep that on your radar. This may help minimize any decline into mid-month as we gently start to roll over. We expect the market to be supported into the election, with every dip bought. The real risk comes after November 3rd into year end. There will be some great swing trade opportunities coming in metals and stocks. With great volatility comes great opportunity if you have the system to navigate the turns.
SPCE put in a bullish reversal candle today and the daily chart should issue a buy signal over the next 2 trading sessions. The consolidation went a bit below our expected $17.50, but the positive side is the greater the action in one direction, the greater the reaction in the other.
DENN and BLMN have a chance to see higher prices into Labor Day week. The 200 DMA is still in play for both.
The most active hurricane season in a decade is forecast for this summer and into early fall. When hurricanes hit the US Gulf Coast, oil rigs close and crude rises. We have two targeting the Gulf Coast currently. This event fits our AI forecast for a crude spike into September 23rd and will most likely be the catalyst for a price spike in oil.
The Republican National Convention kicks off tonight and President Trump will be addressing the American public each and every night - great for our US steel position. On Friday, Joe Biden came out and said after the DNC that he would remove all tariffs on foreign steel, and allow foreign countries to sell all the cheap steel to the USA they wanted. That sent American steel prices into a tailspin Friday. We are hopeful that verbiage will be reversed this week by President Trump. We had a very strong reversal today and charts remain constructive for higher prices and a minimum test of the 200 DMA over the next few days.
The past few days, we had expected a pullback in BTC. This has not materialized. Every dip is being bought, a very good sign. This is going to be position that keeps on giving into year end in our opinion.
Financial Disclosures All opinions, information and illustrations expressed are solely for information and educational purposes and do not constitute investment or trading advice. We bear no responsibility for any actions taken or not taken by third parties after reading the blog. This email content has no regard to your own investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. We may have an interest and may make purchases, sales or short sales in the securities referred to in the financial educational platform blog. Please ask for our consent before re-publishing blog content. Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed. All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor. All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. Hedge Fund Z LLC is a financial blog for the sole purpose of information. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options. The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system. Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser, bank or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein. The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions. HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you. By your use of the Site and Services, you're agreeing that you bear responsibility for your own investment research, trades, and investment decisions. Only you can decide whether or not a trade is right for you and you agree to be liable for any trades you initiate at your brokerage using research and/or tools that we provide. If you ignore our advice to do independent research and choose instead to trade solely on information, analysis, alerts or opinions found in our Service or website, you have made a conscious, willing, free, and personal decision to do so. You also agree that HFZ, its directors, its employees, subsidiaries, affiliates, and its agents will not be liable for any investment decision, trade made or action taken by you and others based on news, information, opinion, or any other material published through our Site and Services. Hedge Fund Z Terms and Conditions