Nightly Briefing 8/25/20


Our September forecast is coming to fruition. A top in this current rally into Sept 3/4th with some consolidation into the Fed meeting, Sept 16th. There is a good chance of a secondary peak into September 23rd, which our system has identified running cycles from the past 60 years. We have followed certain aspects of the 40-year cycle this past trading year, as many of you know, which led us to pick the March 23rd bottom to the day when we entered TQQQ at $33. We had a secondary peak in 1980 into this September 23rd date. This may not produce all time new highs for all indexes, but strength should be expected. As of now, we would say October is going to contain the bulk of a quick, sharp sell-off. We should see two sided action with an advance for half the month and decline the other half, order to be determined. This is a high confidence call from our system with the use of artificial intelligence software. Short interest in the market is at an all time low, so when a sell-off happens, there is no short covering to buoy a decline. These are the types of environments that can produce mini flash crashes, potentially very profitable if timed properly. We will go over a hedging strategy early next week for members into election season.


Gold has worked off extreme bullish sentiment and can usher in a quick bounce into early next week.


Daily sell signals across the board in SLV, GDX and GLD. Hard to place big short term bets or use leverage in this environment.


We need some help from President Trump over the next 3 nights at the RNC regarding tariffs if we want to see $10+ on this rally into September. Powell’s speech regarding inflation on Thursday may play big for the steel sector and the USD.


The mayor of NYC today said he will shut indoor dining restaurants down most likely into winter. This same approach to Covid is being implemented in other cities. We are looking to exit DENN on strength soon.

The bottom to our pullback may be Thursday when Powell speaks. He may be the catalyst for an advance in BTC into September as we forecast.

Hurricanes are coming and oil has begun to surge.


SPCE is starting to turn for us. It will reward us very soon and has home run potential into November.

HFZ


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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 

 

Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 

 

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