Nightly Briefing 8/3/20

People are emailing us asking for the exact day the market will have a minor pullback so they can avoid a tiny draw down. Serial trading is not a way to make consistent gains in the market in our opinion. Stick to the bigger picture: higher prices into our cycle top late August. If you're a short term trader, use SPX 3400 as a spot to peel some of your position off. That can be tested this week, perhaps tomorrow, if congress agrees to the new stimulus package. The next correction worth worrying about is late August into early September. We will do our best to protect our members. We have the Republican National Convention coming up. Expect this to act like a Fed meeting and draw stock prices higher into it.

DUST should break higher Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest. This move should push DUST easily over $20. Dip buyers are almost exhausted and real selling is coming. Longer term metals traders don't need to do anything as we see great returns coming into the fall and spring!

We won't consider selling crude until it tags $49. We would need to see a binary event occur to alter our thinking.

Natural gas requires a lot of patience to trade. A few select energy firms dominate price. Some members are long UNG so we want to provide continued guidance. Higher prices are coming into November. Near term, $12.50 and $14.50 should act as resistance. Potential targets for November are $19-$21 UNG.

Today Covid data was positive with both case and death reduction. Today's beat down in Covid-sensitive sectors in our opinion was beginning of the month rebalancing by pension funds which dominate ownership in many of these stocks. A portion of funds were most likely re-directed to other more defensive Covid sectors. Hard to consider selling these two names with nothing but upgrades and positive restaurant traffic news being reported. Look for an easing of Covid lockdowns and restrictions which should allow more cash flow for our restaurant stocks. Today there was a positive data reported from Florida, Texas, California, etc regarding deaths and new cases declining.

The public float for ADT is approximately 100 million shares. We traded nearly double that today with share price closing up approximately 50% from Friday's close. The biggest risk is an offering, but we don’t see that occurring until $20+. We looking for at least one more larger spike higher Tuesday or Wednesday, so be alert tomorrow near the open. If we see a multi-point gap, we may elect to book profit. After the close Goldman Sachs upgraded ADT to $17 near term target. There was a 17-million share short position in the stock prior to the news with google. This is bad news for shorts, and game changing and disruptive news from Google.

Silver will outperform gold miners and gold into next May. We have gotten a lot of questions regarding silver’s trading recently. Expect $26 futures to act as stiff resistance. A pullback to $21 should occur the next 45 days. After $26 is breached, $34 is next. Long term SLV options into May 2021 are a favorite of ours currently. We will provide guidance when we feel the best time to enter arises. Expect at least one back test of the $21 futures breakout price before we see $34. Refrain from any fear of missing out. We will not let you miss this legendary run.

GBTC and Bitcoin are headed for a September spike top $15000 minimum target. We expect to hold into that next key resistance level and may take profits there. Ultimately higher prices into November are forecast,$18,000- $20,000 BTC.

We are watching a steel stock, CLF, for an entry this week as we mentioned in the Sunday briefing. We would love to get an entry under $5, but a break above $5.60 on a closing basis would make us potentially buy.


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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 


Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 


The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  


No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein.  The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions.  HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you. 


By your use of the Site and Services, you're agreeing that you bear responsibility for your own investment research, trades, and investment decisions. Only you can decide whether or not a trade is right for you and you agree to be liable for any trades you initiate at your brokerage using research and/or tools that we provide. If you ignore our advice to do independent research and choose instead to trade solely on information, analysis, alerts or opinions found in our Service or website, you have made a conscious, willing, free, and personal decision to do so. You also agree that HFZ, its directors, its employees, subsidiaries, affiliates, and its agents will not be liable for any investment decision, trade made or action taken by you and others based on news, information, opinion, or any other material published through our Site and Services.  

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