People are emailing us asking for the exact day the market will have a minor pullback so they can avoid a tiny draw down. Serial trading is not a way to make consistent gains in the market in our opinion. Stick to the bigger picture: higher prices into our cycle top late August. If you're a short term trader, use SPX 3400 as a spot to peel some of your position off. That can be tested this week, perhaps tomorrow, if congress agrees to the new stimulus package. The next correction worth worrying about is late August into early September. We will do our best to protect our members. We have the Republican National Convention coming up. Expect this to act like a Fed meeting and draw stock prices higher into it.
DUST should break higher Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest. This move should push DUST easily over $20. Dip buyers are almost exhausted and real selling is coming. Longer term metals traders don't need to do anything as we see great returns coming into the fall and spring!
We won't consider selling crude until it tags $49. We would need to see a binary event occur to alter our thinking.
Natural gas requires a lot of patience to trade. A few select energy firms dominate price. Some members are long UNG so we want to provide continued guidance. Higher prices are coming into November. Near term, $12.50 and $14.50 should act as resistance. Potential targets for November are $19-$21 UNG.
Today Covid data was positive with both case and death reduction. Today's beat down in Covid-sensitive sectors in our opinion was beginning of the month rebalancing by pension funds which dominate ownership in many of these stocks. A portion of funds were most likely re-directed to other more defensive Covid sectors. Hard to consider selling these two names with nothing but upgrades and positive restaurant traffic news being reported. Look for an easing of Covid lockdowns and restrictions which should allow more cash flow for our restaurant stocks. Today there was a positive data reported from Florida, Texas, California, etc regarding deaths and new cases declining.
The public float for ADT is approximately 100 million shares. We traded nearly double that today with share price closing up approximately 50% from Friday's close. The biggest risk is an offering, but we don’t see that occurring until $20+. We looking for at least one more larger spike higher Tuesday or Wednesday, so be alert tomorrow near the open. If we see a multi-point gap, we may elect to book profit. After the close Goldman Sachs upgraded ADT to $17 near term target. There was a 17-million share short position in the stock prior to the news with google. This is bad news for shorts, and game changing and disruptive news from Google.
Silver will outperform gold miners and gold into next May. We have gotten a lot of questions regarding silver’s trading recently. Expect $26 futures to act as stiff resistance. A pullback to $21 should occur the next 45 days. After $26 is breached, $34 is next. Long term SLV options into May 2021 are a favorite of ours currently. We will provide guidance when we feel the best time to enter arises. Expect at least one back test of the $21 futures breakout price before we see $34. Refrain from any fear of missing out. We will not let you miss this legendary run.
GBTC and Bitcoin are headed for a September spike top $15000 minimum target. We expect to hold into that next key resistance level and may take profits there. Ultimately higher prices into November are forecast,$18,000- $20,000 BTC.
We are watching a steel stock, CLF, for an entry this week as we mentioned in the Sunday briefing. We would love to get an entry under $5, but a break above $5.60 on a closing basis would make us potentially buy.
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