Nightly Briefing 9/10/20


The best time to buy stocks is at the bottom of an intermediate cycle low like we had back in March. They occur on average every 8-10 months. We will have one in December. The second best time to buy stocks is at the bottom of a daily cycle low. Every larger intermediate advancing cycle is comprised of 3-5 smaller daily cycles. This pattern has evolved and changed over the last 10 years as monetary intervention by the Fed has become more aggressive. The easiest, safest thing to do is wait for the softball pitch when a DCL or ICL occurs before buying. However, most investors never develop the patience to trade in that manner and end up over-trading and taking too many unnecessary losses. We have a DCL coming next week that should produce a nice 10-14 day long trade. Not all stocks will participate - ETF’s are safest. This is not the time for excessive leverage in options this late in the advancing intermediate cycle. Constant and consistent use of options or leverage 100% of the time will almost always end up with the same result: a blown up account. Pick your spots carefully. There are times to be greedy and we will always point them out.

Depending on how badly the Fed wants to defend the market, we may  just produce a small undercut low 3,290 SPX next week. However, if allowed to correct naturally, the SPX may see 3,220 into September 17/18, our buy zone. Most likely BIB and SPXL or TQQQ will be our trades.

Metals are in a tedious whipsaw pattern which will most likely continue into the end of October. Some tradable short term swings are possible, but our buy-and-hold setup will occur late October into early December.


Bitcoin is fueling up for the biggest move of the year over the next 45 days. November 1st is only 33 trading days away.


Between the end of September and October 21st, value hunters will push Denny’s to $15-$16 per share.


When we look at a longer term chart on X, we see it's consolidating for the next leg higher. The exact date of a steel sector explosion is unknown. We are disappointed it has not occurred yet, but feel highly confident it is a matter of when - not if - it occurs. Once the sideways coil completes, there will be a powerful move up.


SPCE is holding the uptrend line nicely. It looks great into October.


Crude is vital towards keeping the global economy going. Price will stay supported in the sweet spot region ($36-$45) by world governments. We do not see a collapse in price.

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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 

 

Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 

 

The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  

 

No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein.  The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions.  HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you. 

 

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