Nightly Briefing 9/13/20


The dollar is set to give a counter-trend rally into early November, which can pressure risk assets like stocks and more so commodities. We expected this into the election which is 45 days away. The dollar is correlated to metals 95% of the time so we pay attention to it. Gold, due to safe haven buying, can perform better than miners or silver during a dollar rally. As the dollar bounce completes into the election, it will keep pressure on commodities.  Silver and miners are looking much weaker than gold into late October/November, which should produce lows for the metal complex and unleash a strong rally into early December.


The dollar should not exceed the 200 DMA. This is a counter-trend rally.


Whipsaw will be ongoing from this week right into the election. We expect a short term low to form this coming Thursday and a bounce into the end of the month. Many funds may be sellers the last few days of the month and into the early part of October to lock in pre-election profits. This projected drop should be violent from Sept 28-Oct 5. Fear will be high into the election and many do not know what to expect. We anticipate the early October bottom to usher in a strong rally into October 21st. October's peak should fall between 3,430-3,670 SPX. The October price targets will be dialed in after the month’s close. Many stocks will remain weak for the rest of the year and may  not respond to bounces, with just a handful of big names propping up the indexes. Trading market swings is best served by using ETF's into year-end.


Gold is set to have early weakness with a potential large gap up Thursday, Sept 17. Further weakness and lower prices are expected into September 25, before a bounce occurs into early October 2-5.Unlike silver and miners, gold may not get crushed in October with the dollar’s rally due to safe haven buying. Large gains and acceleration should wait until after the election into early December for bullion and the rest of the metals complex.


Sentiment should reset and work down to the 40 level into October.


SPCE has a lot of big news scheduled for October, so expect a spike in price and volume as the end of September nears. The Street is forward-looking.


We will evaluate the spike in X after this week's share market bottom to see if it has any real momentum.


Crude is setting up for a strong bounce into early October. It may get pressure the week of the 21st due to dollar strength. The week of September 28th into early October looks highly bullish for crude and dollar-sensitive commodities.


BTC is a longer term position. We are holding for a price explosion into November. This may be the largest spike we have seen since the run several years back in BTC.


We are now focused on the end of the quarter, Sept. 29, for the next large spike in DENN. It's severely undervalued and should attract bargain hunters into month end.

HFZ

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