Nightly Briefing 9/2/20


Our system constantly scans mountains of data for patterns. Back in 1980, the Dow Jones from August through October had a series of progressive peaks and troughs. It displayed an unusual megaphone pattern, which is indicative of a propped up market. The DOW put in a series of higher highs and lower lows each month. This is what we currently expect into October. Due to short interest being at all time lows, there are very few large bids beneath the market when sell-offs occur. These will result in a series of mini flash-crash events which will be bought up courtesy of the Fed. So anyone in index funds can sit tight, but for traders, your antennae should be up.  We also don’t expect broad participation over the next 2 months in the market. Only the large mega-cap names will lead and support the indexes. The overall breadth of the market will remain weak. Thus, any story stocks, momentum names, or Covid-sensitive stocks may not participate in these rebounds. For index funds and mega-cap tech names, the Fed will continue to provide waves of buying. After October 21st, all bets are off and we expect an ICL correction into early December, striking our AI target low. 


Gold and silver look lower into next week with miners showing a bit more strength.


Our September 2nd US dollar turn date was right on target. We sold SILJ yesterday in anticipation of this turn.


We are long term holders in SPCE. It certainly is volatile, but the sector is real and the company is the future.


BTC may work lower into early September before we explode up into month end. $13,000-$14,000 during September is possible and $15,000 in November as well.


Denny's time will come over the next few days.


X is still coiling sideways. A breakout of some sort should occur after early next week when the dollar's first advance is complete.


Now is a great time to add crude oil into September 21/22.

HFZ

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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 

 

Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 

 

The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  

 

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