Nightly Briefing 9/22/20


Gold may bounce for a day or two as sentiment is extremely bearish. Weekly technical sell signals have been triggered. All of the pundits screaming for a gold continuation rally were wrong. We take great pride in our market and metals forecast and dedicate countless hours to capturing trends.


Gold looks lower into September 28-October 2. Early next week $1800 futures is possible.


The dollar closed above 93.50 Today. Expect a quick move up to 95.50. This will pressure metals and to a lesser extent stocks.


We see a potential retest of the lows Wednesday/Thursday. It may or may not happen but it’s a danger period with a 70% chance of occurring. We sold TQQQ today for this reason - the market may continue to rally, but over the next few days there is significant risk of another drawdown. No one wants to sit through a 1000 point drop so we took a small profit. A rally into September 29/30 should resume after Thursday. After October 1, we will have a confirmed outlook for the month ahead. A lot of easy swings are coming in the market once confirmed - there is no need to press positions. There has never been a greater number of factors impacting stock markets. There is a lot of data to process: the presidential elections, a second wave, quantitative easing, sovereign debt default in Europe, a great reset trying to be implemented with a cashless society, and finally massive risk to the credit markets with many debt faults expected in the fourth quarter.


Natural gas should dig in here at these price levels and start its move to $17 in early October/November .


So far only the mega-cap tech names and darlings of Wall Street are participating in this bounce.  secondary stocks such as Virgin Galactic have not responded yet but they should bounce over the next few days once the broad market settles down.


Cliff resources is incredibly undervalued. We don’t see any risk of dilution as long as the stock does not break $10. Only at that point the company may look to raise capital.



HFZ



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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 

 

Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 

 

The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  

 

No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein.  The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions.  HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you. 

 

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