Recently we have received countless compliments on our timing in metals and the broad stock market and we thank you. But do not get complacent - no system is 100% and money management will always be vital to successful trading. Please refer to our money management guide in the Gold Portal if you have not already. If not practiced, the end result is always the same: a blown out account. The time to be greedy is at ICL bottoms. We will identify one for you in metals the next 30 days.
We can see a sharp reversal in sentiment being represented by the smart/dumb money tracker. Expect these trends to continue into the first week of October.
We expect a possible gap down tomorrow AM and potential short term low to form Thursday/Friday, followed by a brief but fairly strong bounce into September 29/30. Another drop into October 5th is expected. At this point, there is a 70% chance we strike the 200 DMA then. The flip side would be a higher low with the one we see this Thursday/Friday holding. The Fed wants a strong rally into the elections, and letting the markets seek out the 200 DMA will produce a powerful, multi-week bounce/rally. We are favoring this outlook. Our timing is not expected to change, but price levels can. On October 5th, we will produce our market outlook into the election. As of now, our system is projecting a sharp decline/mini crash from October 21-25 into November 4th. We currently recommend caution into October 5th.
For a short term end-of-month trade, we would use TQQQ as our vehicle. It is very late in the advancing cycle to be using options. We would play this with a very small bet. The trade could be alerted tomorrow or Friday. We have a number of members who ask for these setups so we provide them. They are not for everyone.
Gold and silver should carve out a temporary low Sept 28-Oct 2. A bounce into mid-October should occur followed by lower lows into an ICL bottom the first few days of November. GDX is at strong support ($37) and should bounce from that level once struck, possibly tomorrow AM. It can see $32 again on this ICL in late October/early November. Silver can break $20 futures end of October/early November.
The bloodbath phase should last 3-5 days when gold breaks $1800, late October, and all of the traders who have been buying the dips since early August realize they are wrong and panic out. This is our trigger to go long. Metals will not rocket out of an ICL bottom like stocks. They will bounce along the bottom for 5-6 days then move up. Double bottoms are common.
Sentiment is overdrawn to the downside. Metals may bounce off of $1850 gold futures and move up into month-end with stocks. Sentiment needs to reset. Metals and stocks have moved together so quite possibly they both seek their lows together. Metals normally will bottom 1-2 days ahead of stocks when they closely track each other .
The dollar was responsible for metals having a prolific run in late July. It too will be the cause for the bloodbath coming over the next few weeks. The metals don’t have a Plunge Protection Team looking out for them. They deal with the opposite where the manipulation is to the downside by the bullion banks, as they dump large futures contracts in the premarket with light volume to run stop-loss orders.
Possible trade target for Thursday.
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