Nightly Briefing 9/24/20

Gold should bottom on Monday September 28th, but may rattle around and double bottom into October 5/6 with stocks before producing a sustained bounce at the $1800 level. We would be surprised if that level is breached on this decline. Only if the bullion banks attacked with massive contract dumps would that occur, not likely. Many buyers of futures contracts now ask for physical delivery, a big problem for naked paper shorts. They are not as cavalier as they once were. Look for silver and miners to carve out lows in the first few days of November, though gold may put its low in first in late October. We will dial in on the low as it approaches. The deeper the correction goes into our Intermediate cycle low, the lower our price targets will be for February. What is most important is buying at the bottom of the ICL and taking whatever the next advancing intermediate cycle trend gives us. It will be significant enough to produce 2x-5x options returns. $1700-$1775 is our target zone for a bottom currently.

The 200 DMA will pull price down like a magnet. We expect it to get hit between September 25-October 5/6. A brief intraday spike below it to 25,900 is likely. We should have the signal to go long the stock market after October 5/6. It may be a higher low, but safety first. Better make less than lose. Our system will get in close to the bottom if not right on it. 

Most pundits are calling for a crash into the election and throughout the entire month of October. Based on today's data, we currently do not agree with this expectation and see a significant bounce/rally into October 21-25. We will most likely use QQQ as our vehicle for this rally.

Monday looks like a possible strong up move for crude - a good place to take profits for anyone currently long.

UNG is behaving well for us presently. It is volatile and erratic, but should continue to trend higher into mid-October and possibly even into early December. We will sell at the next resistance point. Once it breaks $15 expect $17+ quickly.

Major press and news is scattered throughout the month of October for SPCE. It responds well to headlines. We can see the chart taking form now for a big move through $20 in October.

The big move for steel may start in October as funds position money for the 2021 steel rally as. Regardless of who wins the next election, we expect infrastructure to be a big topic - steel and iron ore benefit.

We are confident BTC will deliver a decisive move for us into November/December. It is about accumulation now. We could have sold at $15 booked a 25% profit in the short term portfolio, but the upside is too great. Not a bad idea for everybody to put away a few dollars in BTC. Many smart billionaires and institutions who claim to not be fans of crypto are buying.

As more restaurant stocks reinstate their dividends, like Darden today, the sector will gain more traction. Denny's already raised cash and diluted - the bad news out. There will be a 4-5 day period where it moves $5-6. Patience is required for this Covid-sensitive stock. Once the election ends, Covid fear should be reduced significantly, allowing this sector to explode up. Wall Street is forward-looking, as the large institutional players who dominate 80%-90% of these stocks will add in advance of the event. October can be a great month for Denny's even as second wave fears are present. Anything below $10 is extreme value in our opinion.


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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 


Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 


The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  


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