Nightly Briefing 9/28/20

We have a target for a top on Wednesday at SPX 3410. The pullback we expect to occur should keep SPX above the low of its prior daily cycle decline of 3200. We want to see that low hold and go long in our time band for a rally into October 21-25. If for some reason we dip below 3200, we will reassess. A slight undercut of 3170 may be possible. Shorting after Wednesday would be for aggressive traders only with no options and tight stops in SPXS or short SPXL. Shorting the Fed’s liquidity bazooka is a tough proposition. The two big down days currently appear to be Friday and next Monday. NDX is by far the strongest index.

The USD stalled at the downtrend line and provided a pullback, which allowed metals to rebound and stocks to surge. Stocks can rally through a rising dollar with the help of the Fed, but 95% of the time metals will struggle. We are looking for a dollar top near the election.

The dollar has bottomed and sentiment has a long way to go before price is overbought. We expect the 200 DMA to be tested prior to the election. This will pressure metals and limit stock gains after mid-October.

We have received a few emails asking why we don’t short gold. Metals spike down for a day with the help of bullion bank pressure, but dip buyers quickly rally them back. Often these spikes occur in premarket and aftermarket trading, making it challenging for the average retail trader to harvest gains. The only time in a metals bull market that you will see them embed in oversold conditions is during an Intermediate cycle low, where price will embed into oversold for a period of 3-7 days and create a bloodbath phase where longs panic out and commercial traders and banks enter into large positions. This is when and how the large players enter positions. They would constantly inflate markets if they tried to build positions during most trading days. The metals markets are fairly thin. We expect to see this occur in late October. 

We have stated since we entered Virgin Galactic that we expected October to be a huge month for the stock based on news flow and corporate developments. Two major banks upgraded the stock today and we expect more to follow. SPCE has the potential to be the story stock of 2021. October/November is a target top followed by February as the company executes its business plan. They have diluted already to raise capital so that risk is out of the market. We expect $27 to be tested shortly. We plan on holding at a minimum into November or $40+, whichever comes first.

CLF is in talks to purchase MT’s US steel assets, expanding its US footprint in the rolled steel market. Our concern is investment bankers push the stock quickly to $8+ by Wednesday and then announce the deal. A combination of senior notes and some stock would comprise the capital raise and damage price in the short term. However, with the increase in revenue and EPS long term looks huge for CLF. We will watch the trading action closely and most likely be cautious and exit over the next 48 hours unless there are additional developments.

SPCE had a recognition day today gapping up $3+ points at the open and closing over short term resistance. You had to be positioned prior, which will likely be the same scenario with BTC. You will wake up one morning and find price up $2500 in BTC and be forced to chase if you don’t have a position. November is going to be exceptional for BTC.

UNG should have one more day of consolidation. You can see a flag forming on the short term chart and this should result in price following our forecast into mid-October.


Financial Disclosures

All opinions, information and illustrations expressed are solely for information and educational purposes and do not constitute investment or trading advice. We bear no responsibility for any actions taken or not taken by third parties after reading the blog. This email content has no regard to your own investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. We may have an interest and may make purchases, sales or short sales in the securities referred to in the financial educational platform blog. Please ask for our consent before re-publishing blog content.

Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes.  Hedge Fund Z LLC is a financial blog for the sole purpose of information.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility.  Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options.  The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser, bank or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein.  The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions.  HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you.  By your use of the Site and Services, you're agreeing that you bear responsibility for your own investment research, trades, and investment decisions. Only you can decide whether or not a trade is right for you and you agree to be liable for any trades you initiate at your brokerage using research and/or tools that we provide. If you ignore our advice to do independent research and choose instead to trade solely on information, analysis, alerts or opinions found in our Service or website, you have made a conscious, willing, free, and personal decision to do so. You also agree that HFZ, its directors, its employees, subsidiaries, affiliates, and its agents will not be liable for any investment decision, trade made or action taken by you and others based on news, information, opinion, or any other material published through our Site and Services.

Hedge Fund Z Terms and Conditions

©2020 Hedge Fund Z










Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 


Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 


The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  


No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein.  The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions.  HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you. 


By your use of the Site and Services, you're agreeing that you bear responsibility for your own investment research, trades, and investment decisions. Only you can decide whether or not a trade is right for you and you agree to be liable for any trades you initiate at your brokerage using research and/or tools that we provide. If you ignore our advice to do independent research and choose instead to trade solely on information, analysis, alerts or opinions found in our Service or website, you have made a conscious, willing, free, and personal decision to do so. You also agree that HFZ, its directors, its employees, subsidiaries, affiliates, and its agents will not be liable for any investment decision, trade made or action taken by you and others based on news, information, opinion, or any other material published through our Site and Services.  

For additional important risks, disclosures, and information, please visit