Nightly Briefing 9/30/20


Markets topped today right at 2pm EST when the Fed minutes were released. Our shorting target of SPY $339/$340 or SPX 3400 was not hit to safely trigger the trade. Tomorrow is the moment of truth as many analysts claim we carved out a major low last week. If correct, the RSI shown above should remain in overbought territory and embed there as price climbs higher into next week. However, we believe price and the RSI should get rejected and head lower into early next week for a sharp, multi-day pullback.


The Russell will have the least support on a multi-day plunge and nice profits can come from being short the index. We are hopeful for the right setup and one more attempt by the Fed to prop price up tomorrow AM. Between now and the election, there is going to be massive manipulation and gyrations in the markets. Keep tight stops and trade small until the right setup occurs. Whipsaw will be the norm.


The dollar should resume its uptrend over the next 48 hours, pressuring metals.


$1810-$1820 futures is possible by next week in gold. These moves down occur in 1-2 days which makes shorting very tedious. When gold turns down into its final ICL, the blood bath phase, we will have a sustained 4-7 day move down, easier to short if one chooses. Miners and silver follow gold down, but gold is capable of rallying on safe-haven buying.


SPCE should hold support above $18.50. It jumped 25% so a small pullback leads to a healthy chart which can support a sustained upward move into October.

We got a solid doji today in UNG. Late-month rolling of futures contracts occurred yesterday, putting heavy pressure on natural gas. It is very difficult to determine when large players will roll or take delivery.  Institutions and commercial hedgers will wait until to early the following month, October 1-2, to reestablish positions. A large gap up day, $1-$2, is possible the next few trading days.


DENN will lag until the broad market finishes its consolidation, most likely into next week.



Possible trades that will trigger the next 3-5 trading days are listed below:

TZA - Small caps next 48 hours if we get strength into tomorrow AM.


BIB - Biotech long mid next week on stock market low.


GLD/SLV/NUGT - Metals long if $1810 is hit next week.


 TQQQ - long next week if our targets are hit: $110-$115

HFZ


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Important Disclosures: Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.  Actual clients may achieve results materially different from the results portrayed.  All material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice and is not meant to suggest that any securities are suitable investments for any particular investor.  All information reflects our own actions, beliefs, and processes for purely informational purposes. HEDGE FUND Z LLC IS A FINANCIAL BLOG FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF EDUCATION.  HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment advisor or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. 

 

Third party quotes and information may not be representative of the experience of HFZ customers and do not represent a guarantee of future performance or success. Many of the results displayed on our website were achieved using leverage, such as 2x or 3x leveraged ETF's or equity options 

 

The information included at HFZ and HFZ writing, research, and updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system.  Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. HFZ does not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. HFZ will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.  

 

No information, nor any opinion expressed on the Site or in the Services, shall constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned therein.  The information presented on the Site and in the Services has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, needs, capacity, and trading ability or experience. Accordingly, you should not act on any information on the Site or in the Services without obtaining specific advice from your financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the basis for your trading and/or investment decisions.  HFZ cannot claim or represent that any of our Services are suitable for you. 

 

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