The market is following our forecast almost perfectly to date. Expect a brief bounce over the next few days, then a daily cycle low into Sept 16/17 and finally a strong bounce/rally into end of quarter, Sept 25-27. SPX 3500-3600 is the target as long as SPX 3200 is not breached into next week. Be patient - we will have strong long trades next week and if you're eyeing any individual stocks, next Wednesday/Thursday should be a great buying opportunity. September 29th-October 6th is the next danger period capable of producing a 1000-2000 drop in the Dow along with the other major indexes. Then a large rally into October 21st has the potential to bring new highs. From here into the end of the year, there will be huge opportunity for profits with wild swings in stocks, metals, and energy. We believe this will be the most profitable 3 months of the year for HFZ. Start raising cash - there will be several of the best trades of the year taking form next week!
We try not to enter into shorter trades as some members, mostly new traders, are disappointed with a 5% gain. We attempt to focus on the larger trending swing trades when they are available to us, but that requires sitting in cash (which should be regarded as a position) at times and waiting. However, we always offer our short term road map for metals, the stock market and other various asset classes so members who enjoy short term trading and are good at risk management can harvest short-term profits.
We expect DENN to hold the $11 level. After the low is completed next week, a strong rally should finally occur for DENN as we get rotation into value names for end of quarter. DENN is trading at half its pre-Covid value and has already raised cash and diluted. Market risk at these levels remains low.
We warned for 2 weeks of a possible re-test of the breakout level on BTC and GBTC. We elected not to sell at $14+ because that decline was not guaranteed, and based on the size of the rally, we anticipate holding a longer term position. We disclose all of what we see so each member who trades differently can apply our proprietary data to their own trading style. We capitalized on the gap fill Saturday afternoon, issuing a buy alert at $9900 for BTC which trades 24/7. A small chance of a one-day flash crash to $9100 is possible, but not likely. If it does occur, it will be a tremendous price to add.
Steel has held strong in the face of a 1500-point drop in the DOW. The sideways coil should continue until post FOMC into an end-of-quarter spike.
Heavy money flows were detected in SPCE today as it rebounded with strength from oversold levels. This is one stock that has the potential to be the stock of the decade 2020-2030. More and more smart money is beginning to recommend SPCE and take fresh positions. Expect this trend to continue. Higher prices over $20 can come any day with a slew of good PR coming in October. Wall Street is forward thinking.
Oil is our most disappointing position technically. It is embedded in oversold. It should hold out from an ICL correction until stocks are ready to join it (Nov/Dec). We will evaluate it into FOMC week and may or may not remove it from the short term portfolio into month's end.
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